はじめての資産運用

この記事は約4分で読めます。

資産運用は普通の人がすると、
増えるどころか、かなりの確率で目減りします。

なので、ちょっと将来を考えて、
まずはやってみようかな的にやるのは
あまりオススメできないです。

精神的なゆとりと時間がないなら止めるべきです。

ほったらかしで稼げるほど、
世の中、甘くないです。

なので始めるなら、まず覚悟を決めて、
焼かれながらほふく前進するイメージをお持ちください。

まず資産運用の時間概念を考えると、超短期か長期のどちらかです。
短期・中期はで稼ぐことは至難の業です。

私の信条で、「明日の株価はわからない」があります。

過去の経験上、著名アナリスト含め短期・中期は誰も当たりません。
正確に申しますと、株価が上か下かで考えると5分5分なので、
一方的に外れるわけではないですが、聞くだけ無駄に終わるケースが大半。

ですが、超短期か長期ならスキルに伴い精度が上がります。

私は、超短期のデイトレが一番おススメ。

なぜなら、時間軸が長いほど不確定要素が多い事をお考え下さい。
資産運用に限らず、世の中の事象全てにおいて、
5分後の未来と1年後の未来とどちらを正確に予測できますか?

5分後なら、予測でき当てやすいですよね。
1年後なんて、誰もがそれこそ死んでいるかもしれません。

1,2週間の保有するスウィングトレードも、デイトレに近く
悪くはないですが、私は避けてきました。

それなら、
10年前後の時間軸で考える長期は最も予測しにくいはずです。

しかし、長期となると不確定要素<統計値に収束されるのです。

以下NYダウの過去100年の株価チャートです。

景気後退や恐慌などで暴落する時期もありますが、
100年の歴史を見ると右肩上がりです。

(日本株は成長が期待が薄いので、長期投資に関しては米国株を中心に
ポートフォリオを組成すると良いです。)

↑クリックすると拡大表示します。

ちょっとやそっとの不確定要素ではびくともしないくらい、
過去の歴史の傾向に重みがあるのです。

戦争があろうが、伝染病が流行しようが、
10年後、テレワーク・AI・5Gは確実に世の中に普及しているはずです。そうした事業に正攻法で真摯に取り組む優良企業を探すのは、
それほど難しくないです。

ただ、そうした企業に投資しても、
短い時間軸では、リセッションで暴落することは1度や2度はあるはずです。

そうした時に、長期的には上がるとしても、
急落に耐え保有し続けられるかどうかが長期投資の判断基準となります。

(あらかじめ投げ売りしないように、リスク許容度を低く見積もり、あらかじめ暴落を想定したうえで、一段利回りの低い商品を選べば耐えられるかもしれません。)

要するに未来に対してしっかりとしたヴィジョンを持ち強い信念があれば、最終的に報われる可能性が高くなりますが、ほとんどの人は、ヴィジョンや強い信念を持ちえないと私は考えています。

ウォーレン・バフェットのような優れた長期投資家に
皆さんなりたいのですが、なれる訳ではないのです。

なぜなら、ほとんどの人は、
「できるだけ短い期間に大金を稼ぎたい」という本能から抜け出せないので。

従って、希望的観測と感情の奴隷に終始してしまうのです。

それほどまでに、生身の人間は、
目先の利益に目がくらんでしまうのです。

そんなことないと思われる方もいらっしゃると思いますが、
平時では確かにできる方も少なからず一定数存在すると思います。

特に人は窮地の時には目先の事しか考えられなくなり、
その窮地の時こそ、長期的な視野の元での判断が大切になります。

ご自身で投資してポジションを持ってみればわかります。
恐ろしいほど、希望的観測と感情の奴隷ですから。

投資で稼げる様になるには、
少なくとも本能<理性の状態をキープする事が求められます。

手段については、短期で稼いだものを原資として、
安全性の高い金融商品で長期(10年~30年)で回すのが王道です。

超短期と長期で分けて考えることをオススメします。

短期運用は短期売却益を目的とするキャピタルゲイン投資をします。
株とFXでのデイトレ、先物とオプションが代表例です。

長期運用のものは、資産の長期保有からもたらされる配当金や受取利息を目的とするインカムゲイン投資をします。ETFとファンド、外国債と社債、金、外国株(ディフェンシブ系高配当銘柄)、不動産投資等あります。

その際、長期投資においては、ドルコスト平均法、通貨分散、為替ヘッジなどの技術が求められますが、短期、長期いづれも小手先のテクニックで走っても簡単には稼げません。

投資というジャンルを根底から支配するメンタルの持ち方や
行動経済学の多大な心理的敵影響をきちんと理解し体得して
自分自身を律することが強く求められます。

最初のステップとしては、まずはデイトレで稼げるようになる事が最優先。

サラリーマンでデイトレの時間がない方は、
安全性の高い金融商品を長期で回すしかないです。

そう、サラリーマンの方がほったらかしで、
高い利回りを狙うことがそもそもズレています。

そんなものがあれば、そもそも働かなくて、
運用だけで食べていけるはずですから。

長期でほったらかしにするなら、
低い利回りしか期待できないという事です。

サラリーマンの方は最初の投入原資をどう構築するか、
よく短期で稼ぐ特集が組まれている週刊SPA!を参考に
何らかのリスクを取ってみても良いと思います。

私としては、サラリーマンでも週1,2回は、
フルタイムでデイトレに参戦する時間を確保して、
バーチャル取引を活用して、3年くらいで稼げるように
試行錯誤するのが良いと考えています。


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株で1000万稼ぐ極秘メルマガ

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バリュー曽我オリジナル株教材

私の教材はリアルタイムで株で稼ぎ続けている極秘情報を扱ったものですので、
誠に恐れ入りますが、安易に販売するつもりはございません。
ですので私の教材は、一般の方にはご購入をご遠慮頂いております。
ブログ読者様・メルマガ会員の方のみ数量限定で販売させて頂いております。

株で稼ぐ技術勝率90%で1000万稼ぎ
毎年資産倍増!
株で必勝セミナー私が今まで露出した中で
一番きわどい情報です!
世界一わかりやすい
ファンダメンタルズ授業
実利に直結する
ファンダメンタルズ!
DARK MATTER株価急騰落初動キャッチ!
種別 教材名 PDFテキスト 動画
教材 世界一わかりやすいファンダメンタルズの授業 テキスト:46P 解説動画:3時間以上
教材 株で稼ぐ技術 テキスト:50P 解説動画:2時間20分
セミナー 株で必勝セミナー    / 解説動画:1時間20分
ソフト DARK MATTER 図解マニュアル15P 動画マニュアル35分

<特徴>
初級者から上級者まで貴方様のレベルに応じて段階的に、 各種教材、セミナー・ソフトをご用意いたしました。
対象 教材名 定価 目的
初級者以上 世界一わかりやすいファンダメンタルズの授業 9800円 経済の基本から学びたい方
初級者以上 株で稼ぐ技術 1万9800円 株デイトレの基礎的な事から私の手法を学びたい方
中級者以上 株で必勝セミナー 1万9800円 極秘テクニックや株業界の裏事情を知りたい方
中級者~上級者以上 DARK MATTER 4万9800円 株価急騰落の初動をキャッチしたい方

独断と偏見の株アナリストランキング

藤戸則弘 氏

■三菱UFJモルガン・スタンレー証券ストラテジスト
状況分析が正確で一番堅いです。
後で検証すると当たっていることが多いです。

井上哲男 氏

■MCPアセット・マネジメント証券ストラテジスト
他のアナリストと異なり、ファンダメンタルズ分析が上っ面でなく、各種指標の背景を精密な数値により分析している。

早見雄二郎 氏

■株式評論家
ラジオ日経聴者ランキング1位。
トレンド分析・推奨銘柄は必聴。
私も欠かさず聞いています。

さいますみ 氏

■経済アナリスト
若いが経済全般に造詣が深い。
アグレッシブさを応援したくなる。

<経済全般>

高橋洋一郎 氏

■嘉悦大学教授
小泉・安倍政権のブレーン。
実際に政治経済を支える黒子。

中原圭介 氏

■エコノミスト
中原氏の本は、わかりやすく世界経済の現状を分析しているのでファンダメンタルズ分析には欠かせません。

飯田泰之 氏

■明治大学政治経済学部准教授
全部理詰めでわかりやすい。
最近TVでよく見る。

今、話題のピケティ論をまとめてみました。

・資本主義の下では格差は放置すれば拡大する。
・グローバル資本課税を導入すべき。

r(資本収益率)>g(経済成長率)
つまり、資産運用(株・不動産)所得 > 勤労所得

経済成長すれば、格差は縮小すると思われていたが、20世紀はたまたま戦争や恐慌などの特殊要因で経済成長率の方が資本収益率より高かっただけで、実は19世紀以前までは資本収益率の方がずっと高かった。
特に先進国ではこれからは成熟期で経済成長率は鈍化していくので、今後も資本による収益が有利になり、それどころか金融テクノロジーの進化で資本収益率は上昇していく。

なので、ピケティいわく世界各国で資産家に一律で同じ累進課税を適用すべきとのこと。金融資産から負債を引いた純資産に対して国境を越えて累進課税するというもの。つまり、富の再分配の仕組みを構築し、人為的に格差縮小の努力をすべきとのこと。

米国では高所得者トップ10%が国民所得の50%を握っている。
さらに、上位1%が19.3%も握っている。
英国ではトップ10%が40%を握っている。
実は日本もトップ10%が40%弱握っている。

<私が思わずうなずいた「幸運の対価」と呼ばれるピケティの主張>
21世紀になってから大手企業CEOはその経営手腕の対価として年間億単位で稼ぎますが、それが本当に経営能力によるものなのか、たまたま景気が良い時に時運に乗っただけなのかはわからないという見解。

<曽我の見解>
ピケティの主張に反論するわけではないですが、この話、何で今さらというのが第一印象。資産運用(株・不動産)所得 > 勤労所得の構図は、今から15年も前に出版された「金持ち父さん」の4つのクワドラントの中で、経営者・投資家 > 自営業・労働者の構図として既にはっきり示されていましたので。

お陰様で私、正直、富裕層にはなれましたが、あくまで小金持ちで、まだまだ本当に欲しいものがあれもこれも買えるレベルではないです。
個人的には、私は脱サラして親に頼ることなく、自力で投資家へ転身してここまで成り上がってきたので、これから成功の果実を味わいたいというのが本音。
10億ドル(約1000億円)以上の資産を持つ超富裕層が世界に1225人もいるそうなので、手を付けるならまずは超富裕層からお願いします。

曽我の珠玉の人生の法則

他人の人生の計画に組み込まれるか、自分で人生の計画を立て行動するかのどちらかしかない。
(by ジム・ローン)

人生の10%は何が起こるかで決まる。残りの90%はそれにどう反応するかで決まる。
(by スティーブン・R・コヴィー )

選択することはただ選ぶだけだが、恐ろしい事にその後の行動以上の重みがある。
(by バリュー曽我)

Seize the time ! Live now !
Make now always the most precious time !
Now will never come again !
(スタートレックの一節)

我々は規律を守る苦しみか後悔する苦しみの2つの内いずれか1つに苦しまなければならない。規律は軽く後悔は重い。
(by ジム・ローン)