はじめての資産運用
この記事は約4分で読めます。
資産運用は普通の人がすると、
増えるどころか、かなりの確率で目減りします。
なので、ちょっと将来を考えて、
まずはやってみようかな的にやるのは
あまりオススメできないです。
精神的なゆとりと時間がないなら止めるべきです。
ほったらかしで稼げるほど、
世の中、甘くないです。
なので始めるなら、まず覚悟を決めて、
焼かれながらほふく前進するイメージをお持ちください。
まず資産運用の時間概念を考えると、超短期か長期のどちらかです。
短期・中期はで稼ぐことは至難の業です。
私の信条で、「明日の株価はわからない」があります。
過去の経験上、著名アナリスト含め短期・中期は誰も当たりません。
正確に申しますと、株価が上か下かで考えると5分5分なので、
一方的に外れるわけではないですが、聞くだけ無駄に終わるケースが大半。
ですが、超短期か長期ならスキルに伴い精度が上がります。
私は、超短期のデイトレが一番おススメ。
なぜなら、時間軸が長いほど不確定要素が多い事をお考え下さい。
資産運用に限らず、世の中の事象全てにおいて、
5分後の未来と1年後の未来とどちらを正確に予測できますか？
5分後なら、予測でき当てやすいですよね。
1年後なんて、誰もがそれこそ死んでいるかもしれません。
1,2週間の保有するスウィングトレードも、デイトレに近く
悪くはないですが、私は避けてきました。
それなら、
10年前後の時間軸で考える長期は最も予測しにくいはずです。
しかし、長期となると不確定要素＜統計値に収束されるのです。
以下NYダウの過去100年の株価チャートです。
景気後退や恐慌などで暴落する時期もありますが、
100年の歴史を見ると右肩上がりです。
（日本株は成長が期待が薄いので、長期投資に関しては米国株を中心に
ポートフォリオを組成すると良いです。）
↑クリックすると拡大表示します。
ちょっとやそっとの不確定要素ではびくともしないくらい、
過去の歴史の傾向に重みがあるのです。
戦争があろうが、伝染病が流行しようが、
10年後、テレワーク・AI・5Gは確実に世の中に普及しているはずです。そうした事業に正攻法で真摯に取り組む優良企業を探すのは、
それほど難しくないです。
ただ、そうした企業に投資しても、
短い時間軸では、リセッションで暴落することは1度や2度はあるはずです。
そうした時に、長期的には上がるとしても、
急落に耐え保有し続けられるかどうかが長期投資の判断基準となります。
（あらかじめ投げ売りしないように、リスク許容度を低く見積もり、あらかじめ暴落を想定したうえで、一段利回りの低い商品を選べば耐えられるかもしれません。）
要するに未来に対してしっかりとしたヴィジョンを持ち強い信念があれば、最終的に報われる可能性が高くなりますが、ほとんどの人は、ヴィジョンや強い信念を持ちえないと私は考えています。
ウォーレン・バフェットのような優れた長期投資家に
皆さんなりたいのですが、なれる訳ではないのです。
なぜなら、ほとんどの人は、
「できるだけ短い期間に大金を稼ぎたい」という本能から抜け出せないので。
従って、希望的観測と感情の奴隷に終始してしまうのです。
それほどまでに、生身の人間は、
目先の利益に目がくらんでしまうのです。
そんなことないと思われる方もいらっしゃると思いますが、
平時では確かにできる方も少なからず一定数存在すると思います。
特に人は窮地の時には目先の事しか考えられなくなり、
その窮地の時こそ、長期的な視野の元での判断が大切になります。
ご自身で投資してポジションを持ってみればわかります。
恐ろしいほど、希望的観測と感情の奴隷ですから。
投資で稼げる様になるには、
少なくとも本能＜理性の状態をキープする事が求められます。
手段については、短期で稼いだものを原資として、
安全性の高い金融商品で長期（10年～30年）で回すのが王道です。
超短期と長期で分けて考えることをオススメします。
短期運用は短期売却益を目的とするキャピタルゲイン投資をします。
株とFXでのデイトレ、先物とオプションが代表例です。
長期運用のものは、資産の長期保有からもたらされる配当金や受取利息を目的とするインカムゲイン投資をします。ETFとファンド、外国債と社債、金、外国株（ディフェンシブ系高配当銘柄）、不動産投資等あります。
その際、長期投資においては、ドルコスト平均法、通貨分散、為替ヘッジなどの技術が求められますが、短期、長期いづれも小手先のテクニックで走っても簡単には稼げません。
投資というジャンルを根底から支配するメンタルの持ち方や
行動経済学の多大な心理的敵影響をきちんと理解し体得して
自分自身を律することが強く求められます。
最初のステップとしては、まずはデイトレで稼げるようになる事が最優先。
サラリーマンでデイトレの時間がない方は、
安全性の高い金融商品を長期で回すしかないです。
そう、サラリーマンの方がほったらかしで、
高い利回りを狙うことがそもそもズレています。
そんなものがあれば、そもそも働かなくて、
運用だけで食べていけるはずですから。
長期でほったらかしにするなら、
低い利回りしか期待できないという事です。
サラリーマンの方は最初の投入原資をどう構築するか、
よく短期で稼ぐ特集が組まれている週刊SPA!を参考に
何らかのリスクを取ってみても良いと思います。
私としては、サラリーマンでも週1,2回は、
フルタイムでデイトレに参戦する時間を確保して、
バーチャル取引を活用して、3年くらいで稼げるように
試行錯誤するのが良いと考えています。
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