ドルコスト平均法と無限ナンピンは紙一重
この記事は約3分で読めます。
株や投資信託の場合、長期投資をする上で毎月積立購入ですと、
ドルコスト平均法により取得購入単価を引き下げられます。
ドルコスト平均法とは、
一度に購入せず、資金を分割して均等額ずつ
定期的に継続して投資する事で、
高値のときは少しだけ買い、
安値のときに多く買うことができるので、
平均取得コストを割安に抑える事ができるという考え方です。
ドルコスト平均法が有効なのは、購入資産価格が上下を繰り返しながら右肩上がりの軌道を描く場合です。この場合は、どのタイミングで買っても長期的には利益が出ます。
米国株式市場は、有史以来ずっと長期目線では右肩上がりです。
ですので、米国のS&P500指数に連動したETF/ファンドには
ドルコスト平均法は特に有効です。
S&P500：時価総額の大きな勢いのあるIT企業中心の500銘柄
ドルコスト平均法は買ったタイミングを気にしなくて良く、
機械的に毎月積立購入すれば良く、
直感、経験、スキルなど本人の裁量を必要としない上で、
余計な希望的観測や感情を売買判断に組み入れさせない点で、
極めて合理的な手法で投資初心者の方含め、
投資で負け越している方でも極めて有効な手法です。
例えば、予算が100万円なら毎月10万円ずつ、
ドルコスト平均法で毎月積立型で一定額買っていくのが良いです。
証券会社のシステムで毎月選んだ日に定期買付を行えます。
そこで最初に設計することとして、
ドルコスト平均法を用いた時間分散投資を用いて、
トータルいくら分の資産を買い付けるために、
どのくらい時間間隔を開けて、
いくらずつ購入するのかを熟考する必要があります。
これは個人の予算と許される時間や、
リスク許容度に応じて変わりますのでご自身で判断すべきことです。
上下を繰り返しがあまりなく急騰右肩上がりの場合でも、
もちろんプラスですが、この場合は最初に全力まとめ買いした方が、
恩恵を余すことなく享受できます。しかし、これはレアケースですし、
そんな事が予見ほど投資は簡単ではありません。
弱点として、右肩下がり場合は、
最初に全力まとめ買いよりは損失を押さえられますが、
これでは利益は出ません。
ドルコスト平均法が有効な場合
ドルコスト平均法が有効でない場合
以下の楽天の株価をご覧ください。
↑クリックすると拡大表示します。
何と1年も株価が一方的に下がり続けた時期があります。
この時に毎月積立購入しても含み損が膨らむだけです。
そこで、大変なことに気づいてしまいました。
ドルコスト平均法と言えども、万能なわけではない。
これって、場合によっては無限ナンピンと同じじゃないか？
ナンピンは買った値より株価が下げた時に、
購入単価を引き下げるために買い増しする事ですが、
デイトレの世界ではその後反転しなければ、
損失が膨らみ過ぎて巨額ロスカットになるので、
教科書的にはタブー視されています。
ドルコスト平均法も右肩下がりなら全く同じこと。
私が言いたいのは、だからドルコスト平均法が使えないのではなく、
使い方を間違えなければ、逆に無限ナンピンも有効になるという事。
確かに永遠に下げるなら、プラスにはなりませんが、
どこかで戻す可能性の方が高いことも事実。
その際に、ナンピンしていた方が購入単価が安くなっている分、
プラ転（プラスに転じる）するのが早く、
全値戻しする前に（しなくても）早期利確、撤退が可能です。
大事なのは、何分割でナンピンで投入予定で、
1回あたりいくら投じ、いくらまで下げを織り込むかです。
その折込を超えて下げた場合は、大きなロスカットになりますので、
そこで自分で想定した範囲×2倍か3倍のナンピンを設定した場合、
上場廃止や特段の事件が起こらない限り、
かなりの確率でプラ転するはずです。
値を下げたから、ナンピンで対応するのでなく、
最初から想定レンジの中で戦略的に分割して買い下がっていくのです。
ですので、ドルコスト平均法＝無限ナンピン（マーチンゲール法）
コインの裏表みたいなもので、やっていることは同じで、
両方とも同じ欠点はあるもののかなりの確率で有効であるという事です。
ご存じの方も多いと思いますが、
これはカジノの世界でマーチンゲール法として知られています。
マーチンゲール法は、負けた時に次回倍掛けするやり方です。
勝負して負けた時に次回2倍ベットすることで、負けた分を取り戻す方法です。どれだけ連敗しても、1回の勝利ですべての損失を取り戻すことができるので、「理論上は負けない」のです。
先に見た楽天もその後の長い時間軸の中では、
値を戻しています。
↑クリックすると拡大表示します。
ただ現実的には、1年も下げ続けた銘柄なら、
その後の上昇を信じてホールドするより、
途中で怖くなって、もっと早くロスカットすると思います。（笑）
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